OSNW3|Oshkosh-North
Forecast Model Comparison
Lezak's Recurring Cycle versus Global Forecast System
Daily 500mb Height Difference From Actual
(500mb Data Provided By University of Wyoming)
(GFS Forecast Data Provided By ARL READY Current & Forecast Meteorology)
Overall Forecast GFS (192-384h) Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
11/23/11 - 1/7/12
Forecast LRC Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
11/23/11 - 1/7/12
Mean 132 104
Maximum 310 253
Minimum -364 -323
Range 674 575
Standard Deviation 151 134
Count 46 46
Confidence Interval 1.392335877 1.236792921
Confidence (95%) 133 106
Forecast
Period 1
Forecast GFS (192-384h) Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
11/23/11 - 12/1/11
Forecast LRC Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
11/23/11 - 12/1/11
Mean 117 109
Maximum 245 253
Minimum -103 -228
Range 348 481
Standard Deviation 115 131
Count 9 9
Confidence Interval 2.412956948 2.73530546
Confidence (95%) 120 112
Forecast
Period 2
Forecast GFS (192-384h) Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
12/2/11 - 12/10/11
Forecast LRC Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
12/2/11 - 12/10/11
Mean 194 115
Maximum 279 235
Minimum -281 -263
Range 560 498
Standard Deviation 202 142
Count 9 9
Confidence Interval 4.228764001 2.975747199
Confidence (95%) 199 118
Forecast
Period 3
Forecast GFS (192-384h) Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
12/12/11 - 12/20/11
Forecast LRC Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
12/12/11 - 12/20/11
Mean 166 107
Maximum 310 35
Minimum -23 -323
Range 333 358
Standard Deviation 106 112
Count 9 9
Confidence Interval 2.217825997 2.333478912
Confidence (95%) 168 109
Forecast
Period 4
Forecast GFS (192-384h) Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
12/21/11 - 12/29/11
Forecast LRC Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
12/21/11 - 12/29/11
Mean 100 107
Maximum 294 241
Minimum -48 -135
Range 342 376
Standard Deviation 124 117
Count 9 9
Confidence Interval 2.589602188 2.452102728
Confidence (95%) 102 110
Forecast
Period 5
Forecast GFS (192-384h) Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
12/30/11 - 1/7/11
Forecast LRC Daily
500mb height difference
as calculated from actual
12/30/11 - 1/7/11
Mean 95 95
Maximum 93 214
Minimum -364 -142
Range 457 357
Standard Deviation 140 91
Count 9 9
Confidence Interval 2.921759049 1.901250799
Confidence (95%) 98 97