First Cycle MaxT Pcpn Snow ALTDev1 Second Cycle MaxT Pcpn Snow ALTDev2 SnowPredict Third Cycle MaxT Pcpn Snow ALTDev3 SnowPredict Fourth Cycle Pcpn Snow ALTDev SnowPredict
Friday, October 01, 2010 68 0 0 2.6 Wednesday, November 17, 2010 48 T 0 6.0   Monday, January 03, 2011 24 0 0 -1.1   Saturday, February 19, 2011        
Saturday, October 02, 2010 67 0.11 0 1.9 Thursday, November 18, 2010 42 0 0 .9   Tuesday, January 04, 2011 28 0.09 1.3 2.6 *** Sunday, February 20, 2011        
Sunday, October 03, 2010 53 0.03 0 -11.5 Friday, November 19, 2010 40 0 0 -1.5   Wednesday, January 05, 2011 20 T T -4.5   Monday, February 21, 2011        
Monday, October 04, 2010 54 0 0 -9.7 Saturday, November 20, 2010 40 0 0 .1   Thursday, January 06, 2011 23 0.06 1 -1.2 3 Tuesday, February 22, 2011        
Tuesday, October 05, 2010 59 0 0 -5.4 Sunday, November 21, 2010 38 0.02 0 -2.1   Friday, January 07, 2011 22 T T -2.3 75% Wednesday, February 23, 2011        
Wednesday, October 06, 2010 66 0 0 2.6 Monday, November 22, 2010 53 0.05 0 13.8   Saturday, January 08, 2011 15 0.01 T -9.0   Thursday, February 24, 2011        
Thursday, October 07, 2010 71 0 0 8.2 Tuesday, November 23, 2010 45 0.09 T 5.9   Sunday, January 09, 2011 24 0 0 -.5   Friday, February 25, 2011        
Friday, October 08, 2010 70 0 0 7.9 Wednesday, November 24, 2010 26 T T -11.6   Monday, January 10, 2011 23 0 0 -.9   Saturday, February 26, 2011        
Saturday, October 09, 2010 77 0 0 15.1 Thursday, November 25, 2010 38 0.27 0.2 -.1   Tuesday, January 11, 2011 25 0.17 1.7 .9   Sunday, February 27, 2011        
Sunday, October 10, 2010 70 0 0 8.9 Friday, November 26, 2010 36 T T -1.1   Wednesday, January 12, 2011 26 0.1 1.1 2.2 3.8 Monday, February 28, 2011        
Monday, October 11, 2010 71 0 0 10.2 Saturday, November 27, 2010 28 0 0 -8.8   Thursday, January 13, 2011 29 T T 4.7   Tuesday, March 01, 2011        
Tuesday, October 12, 2010 67 0 0 7.2 Sunday, November 28, 2010 28 0 0 -7.8   Friday, January 14, 2011 25 0.02 0.5 .6 *** Wednesday, March 02, 2011        
Wednesday, October 13, 2010 69 0 0 8.9 Monday, November 29, 2010 42 0 0 5.7   Saturday, January 15, 2011 22 0.21 2.7 -2.5 2 Thursday, March 03, 2011        
Thursday, October 14, 2010 64 0 0 3.5 Tuesday, November 30, 2010 46 0.12 0 11.0   Sunday, January 16, 2011 24 0 0 .0 40% Friday, March 04, 2011        
Friday, October 15, 2010 60 0 0 1.4 Wednesday, December 01, 2010 43 0.01 T 8.3   Monday, January 17, 2011 20 T T -3.6   Saturday, March 05, 2011        
Saturday, October 16, 2010 60 0 0 1.2 Thursday, December 02, 2010 26 0.02 T -8.5   Tuesday, January 18, 2011 27 0.24 2.2 3.3 4.9 Sunday, March 06, 2011        
Sunday, October 17, 2010 67 0 0 8.9 Friday, December 03, 2010 25 T T -9.1   Wednesday, January 19, 2011 23 T T -.9   Monday, March 07, 2011        
Monday, October 18, 2010 61 0 0 2.8 Saturday, December 04, 2010 26 0.01 0.1 -7.8   Thursday, January 20, 2011 17 T T -6.6   Tuesday, March 08, 2011        
Tuesday, October 19, 2010 53 0 0 -3.8 Sunday, December 05, 2010 33 T T -.5   Friday, January 21, 2011 14 0 0 -10.4   Wednesday, March 09, 2011        
Wednesday, October 20, 2010 58 0 0 1.1 Monday, December 06, 2010 26 T T -7.4   Saturday, January 22, 2011 5 0.01 0.7 -19.4 *** Thursday, March 10, 2011        
Thursday, October 21, 2010 61 0.06 0 4.7 Tuesday, December 07, 2010 24 T T -8.5   Sunday, January 23, 2011 10 T T -13.8   Friday, March 11, 2011        
Friday, October 22, 2010 51 0 0 -5.1 Wednesday, December 08, 2010 25 0 0 -7.4   Monday, January 24, 2011 16 0 0 -8.1   Saturday, March 12, 2011        
Saturday, October 23, 2010 59 0 0 3.6 Thursday, December 09, 2010 26 0 0 -5.6   Tuesday, January 25, 2011 24 T T -1.5 6 Sunday, March 13, 2011        
Sunday, October 24, 2010 57 0.99 0 1.8 Friday, December 10, 2010 28 0.22 2.3 -2.8   Wednesday, January 26, 2011 28 T T 2.5 33% Monday, March 14, 2011        
Monday, October 25, 2010 61 0.22 0 6.6 Saturday, December 11, 2010 33 0.09 0.9 1.7   Thursday, January 27, 2011 26 0.06 0.8 .5   Tuesday, March 15, 2011        
Tuesday, October 26, 2010 61 1.14 0 8.1 Sunday, December 12, 2010 33 1.01 8.1 3.4   Friday, January 28, 2011 26 T T .8   Wednesday, March 16, 2011        
Wednesday, October 27, 2010 62 0.05 0 9.4 Monday, December 13, 2010 19 0.07 0.5 -11.5   Saturday, January 29, 2011 28 0.14 1.2 2.6 2 Thursday, March 17, 2011        
Thursday, October 28, 2010 51 0 0 -1.1 Tuesday, December 14, 2010 13 0 0 -17.5   Sunday, January 30, 2011 26 0.01 0.2 .8   Friday, March 18, 2011        
Friday, October 29, 2010 43 0 0 -8.7 Wednesday, December 15, 2010 16 0 0 -13.1   Monday, January 31, 2011 23 0.02 0.4 -2.9   Saturday, March 19, 2011        
Saturday, October 30, 2010 48 0 0 -3.0 Thursday, December 16, 2010 15 0 0 -13.8   Tuesday, February 01, 2011           Sunday, March 20, 2011        
Sunday, October 31, 2010 57 0 0 5.8 Friday, December 17, 2010 20 0 0 -9.5   Wednesday, February 02, 2011           Monday, March 21, 2011        
Monday, November 01, 2010 46 0 0 -4.0 Saturday, December 18, 2010 21 T T -7.4   Thursday, February 03, 2011           Tuesday, March 22, 2011        
Tuesday, November 02, 2010 48 0 0 -1.7 Sunday, December 19, 2010 17 T 0.1 -10.6 1 Friday, February 04, 2011           Wednesday, March 23, 2011        
Wednesday, November 03, 2010 51 0.02 0 1.7 Monday, December 20, 2010 20 T T -8.3 33% Saturday, February 05, 2011           Thursday, March 24, 2011        
Thursday, November 04, 2010 56 0 0 6.9 Tuesday, December 21, 2010 30 0.22 2.2 2.3   Sunday, February 06, 2011           Friday, March 25, 2011        
Friday, November 05, 2010 47 0.01 T -1.1 Wednesday, December 22, 2010 33 0.11 1 5.7   Monday, February 07, 2011           Saturday, March 26, 2011        
Saturday, November 06, 2010 39 0 0 -9.1 Thursday, December 23, 2010 33 T T 5.7 3.3 Tuesday, February 08, 2011           Sunday, March 27, 2011        
Sunday, November 07, 2010 46 0 0 -.8 Friday, December 24, 2010 28 0 0 1.0   Wednesday, February 09, 2011           Monday, March 28, 2011        
Monday, November 08, 2010 55 0 0 9.2 Saturday, December 25, 2010 28 0.01 0.1 2.1 *** Thursday, February 10, 2011           Tuesday, March 29, 2011        
Tuesday, November 09, 2010 62 0 0 16.4 Sunday, December 26, 2010 31 0 0 4.9   Friday, February 11, 2011           Wednesday, March 30, 2011        
Wednesday, November 10, 2010 61 0 0 15.6 Monday, December 27, 2010 29 0 0 3.2   Saturday, February 12, 2011           Thursday, March 31, 2011        
Thursday, November 11, 2010 60 0 0 14.5 Tuesday, December 28, 2010 22 T T -4.1 2 Sunday, February 13, 2011           Friday, April 01, 2011        
Friday, November 12, 2010 56 0.01 0 12.3 Wednesday, December 29, 2010 26 0 0 .4 0% Monday, February 14, 2011           Saturday, April 02, 2011        
Saturday, November 13, 2010 45 0.1 0 1.1 Thursday, December 30, 2010 36 0.02 0 10.9   Tuesday, February 15, 2011           Sunday, April 03, 2011        
Sunday, November 14, 2010 46 0.08 0 3.4 Friday, December 31, 2010 42 T 0 16.5 0 Wednesday, February 16, 2011           Monday, April 04, 2011        
Monday, November 15, 2010 39 T T -4.2 Saturday, January 01, 2011 45 0.03 0 21.0   Thursday, February 17, 2011           Tuesday, April 05, 2011        
Tuesday, November 16, 2010 47 0 0 5.1 Sunday, January 02, 2011 18 0 0 -6.1   Friday, February 18, 2011           Wednesday, April 06, 2011        
   
Dec 17, 2010 through Jan 31, 2011
Snowfall Forecast for Oshkosh Wisconsin using the Lezak's Recurring Cycle (LRC) theory
Created by Josh Herman on Dec 17, 2010 - Forecast will not be modified.
** Time period of Dec 19-23 may have a low move in from the W bringing an inch.
** Time period of Dec 28-31 there could be a low that moves in from the SW where greater than two inches could fall
** Time period of Jan 6-12 a series of disturbances could work through leaving three or more inches
** Time period of Jan 15-18 a low moves in from the SW potentially leaving two or more inches of snow
** Time period of Jan 25-29, the return of the 'Great Lakes Cyclone' once again, the third iteration, up to six inches of snow could fall
** Total predicted snowfall for forecast period is around 14 inches
Legend Previous  Forecasts Results
predicted snow fall Dec 17, 2010 through Jan 31, 2011 14.0
% accuracy Feb 1, 2011 through Early March, 2011 81%
   
actual snow fall 17.2
I will round the actual snowfall totals for the accuracy calculation as the predicted snowfall amounts are generalized.
Red fill is the start/stop points in the forecast. Chances of snowfall are lt grn , grn , and drk grn)
"ALTDev" is the deviation from the daily maximum temperature average for Oshkosh 1971-2000
Click on Pcpn amounts that are linked for archived radar
*** = snow accumulated and wasn't forecast
Follow this link for the blog entry for more info.