First Cycle MaxT Pcpn Snow ALTDev1 Second Cycle MaxT Pcpn Snow ALTDev2 Third Cycle MaxT Pcpn Snow ALTDev3 SnowPredict Fourth Cycle MaxT Pcpn Snow ALTDev4 SnowPredict  
          Saturday, November 13, 2010 45 0.1 0 1 Monday, January 03, 2011 24 0 0 -1   Wednesday, February 23, 2011 27 T T -5    
          Sunday, November 14, 2010 46 0.08 0 3 Tuesday, January 04, 2011 28 0.09 1.3 3   Thursday, February 24, 2011 30 0.01 0.1 -2 1  
          Monday, November 15, 2010 39 T T -4 Wednesday, January 05, 2011 20 T T -5   Friday, February 25, 2011 34 0 0 1 28%  
          Tuesday, November 16, 2010 47 0 0 5 Thursday, January 06, 2011 23 0.06 1 -1   Saturday, February 26, 2011 26 0.03 0.2 -8    
          Wednesday, November 17, 2010 48 T 0 6 Friday, January 07, 2011 22 T T -2   Sunday, February 27, 2011 19 0.11 3.2 -14 3.5  
Friday, October 01, 2010 68 0 0 3 Thursday, November 18, 2010 42 0 0 1 Saturday, January 08, 2011 15 0.01 T -9   Monday, February 28, 2011 27 T T -7    
Saturday, October 02, 2010 67 0.11 0 2 Friday, November 19, 2010 40 0 0 -2 Sunday, January 09, 2011 24 0 0 -1   Tuesday, March 01, 2011 30 0 0 -4    
Sunday, October 03, 2010 53 0.03 0 -12 Saturday, November 20, 2010 40 0 0   Monday, January 10, 2011 23 0 0 -1   Wednesday, March 02, 2011 39 0 0 4    
Monday, October 04, 2010 54 0 0 -10 Sunday, November 21, 2010 38 0.02 0 -2 Tuesday, January 11, 2011 25 0.17 1.7 1   Thursday, March 03, 2011 25 0 0 -10 7  
Tuesday, October 05, 2010 59 0 0 -5 Monday, November 22, 2010 53 0.05 0 14 Wednesday, January 12, 2011 26 0.1 1.1 2   Friday, March 04, 2011 35 0.25 T   88%  
Wednesday, October 06, 2010 66 0 0 3 Tuesday, November 23, 2010 45 0.09 T 6 Thursday, January 13, 2011 29 T T 5   Saturday, March 05, 2011 38 0.01 0 2    
Thursday, October 07, 2010 71 0 0 8 Wednesday, November 24, 2010 26 T T -12 Friday, January 14, 2011 25 0.02 0.5 1   Sunday, March 06, 2011 32 0 0 -4    
Friday, October 08, 2010 70 0 0 8 Thursday, November 25, 2010 38 0.27 0.2 - Saturday, January 15, 2011 22 0.21 2.7 -3   Monday, March 07, 2011 29 0 0 -7    
Saturday, October 09, 2010 77 0 0 15 Friday, November 26, 2010 36 T T -1 Sunday, January 16, 2011 24 0 0     Tuesday, March 08, 2011 37 0.02 0.2      
Sunday, October 10, 2010 70 0 0 9 Saturday, November 27, 2010 28 0 0 -9 Monday, January 17, 2011 20 T T -4   Wednesday, March 09, 2011 38 0.33 2.9 1    
Monday, October 11, 2010 71 0 0 10 Sunday, November 28, 2010 28 0 0 -8 Tuesday, January 18, 2011 27 0.24 2.2 3   Thursday, March 10, 2011 34 0.34 3.1 -4    
Tuesday, October 12, 2010 67 0 0 7 Monday, November 29, 2010 42 0 0 6 Wednesday, January 19, 2011 23 T T -1   Friday, March 11, 2011 40 0 0 2 6.2  
Wednesday, October 13, 2010 69 0 0 9 Tuesday, November 30, 2010 46 0.12 0 11 Thursday, January 20, 2011 17 T T -7   Saturday, March 12, 2011 40 T T 2    
Thursday, October 14, 2010 64 0 0 4 Wednesday, December 01, 2010 43 0.01 T 8 Friday, January 21, 2011 14 0 0 -10   Sunday, March 13, 2011 34 T T -5 1  
Friday, October 15, 2010 60 0 0 1 Thursday, December 02, 2010 26 0.02 T -9 Saturday, January 22, 2011 5 0.01 0.7 -19   Monday, March 14, 2011 37 0 0 -2 0%  
Saturday, October 16, 2010 60 0 0 1 Friday, December 03, 2010 25 T T -9 Sunday, January 23, 2011 10 T T -14   Tuesday, March 15, 2011 40 0 0   T  
Sunday, October 17, 2010 67 0 0 9 Saturday, December 04, 2010 26 0.01 0.1 -8 Monday, January 24, 2011 16 0 0 -8   Wednesday, March 16, 2011            
Monday, October 18, 2010 61 0 0 3 Sunday, December 05, 2010 33 T T -1 Tuesday, January 25, 2011 24 T T -2   Thursday, March 17, 2011            
Tuesday, October 19, 2010 53 0 0 -4 Monday, December 06, 2010 26 T T -7 Wednesday, January 26, 2011 28 T T 3   Friday, March 18, 2011            
Wednesday, October 20, 2010 58 0 0 1 Tuesday, December 07, 2010 24 T T -9 Thursday, January 27, 2011 26 0.06 0.8 1   Saturday, March 19, 2011            
Thursday, October 21, 2010 61 0.06 0 5 Wednesday, December 08, 2010 25 0 0 -7 Friday, January 28, 2011 26 T T 1   Sunday, March 20, 2011            
Friday, October 22, 2010 51 0 0 -5 Thursday, December 09, 2010 26 0 0 -6 Saturday, January 29, 2011 28 0.14 1.2 3 6 Monday, March 21, 2011            
Saturday, October 23, 2010 59 0 0 4 Friday, December 10, 2010 28 0.22 2.3 -3 Sunday, January 30, 2011 26 0.01 0.2 1 90% Tuesday, March 22, 2011            
Sunday, October 24, 2010 57 0.99 0 2 Saturday, December 11, 2010 33 0.09 0.9 2 Monday, January 31, 2011 23 0.02 0.4 -3   Wednesday, March 23, 2011            
Monday, October 25, 2010 61 0.22 0 7 Sunday, December 12, 2010 33 1.01 8.1 3 Tuesday, February 01, 2011 17 0.21 2.2 -10   Thursday, March 24, 2011            
Tuesday, October 26, 2010 61 1.14 0 8 Monday, December 13, 2010 19 0.07 0.5 -12 Wednesday, February 02, 2011 20 0.32 2.6 -6 6.6 Friday, March 25, 2011            
Wednesday, October 27, 2010 62 0.05 0 9 Tuesday, December 14, 2010 13 0 0 -18 Thursday, February 03, 2011 21 T T -5   Saturday, March 26, 2011            
Thursday, October 28, 2010 51 0 0 -1 Wednesday, December 15, 2010 16 0 0 -13 Friday, February 04, 2011 20 0 0 -7   Sunday, March 27, 2011            
Friday, October 29, 2010 43 0 0 -9 Thursday, December 16, 2010 15 0 0 -14 Saturday, February 05, 2011 24 0 0 -3   Monday, March 28, 2011            
Saturday, October 30, 2010 48 0 0 -3 Friday, December 17, 2010 20 0 0 -10 Sunday, February 06, 2011 28 0.08 0.8 1   Tuesday, March 29, 2011            
Sunday, October 31, 2010 57 0 0 6 Saturday, December 18, 2010 21 T T -7 Monday, February 07, 2011 32 0.06 1 5   Wednesday, March 30, 2011            
Monday, November 01, 2010 46 0 0 -4 Sunday, December 19, 2010 17 T 0.1 -11 Tuesday, February 08, 2011 22 0.05 1.3 -6   Thursday, March 31, 2011            
Tuesday, November 02, 2010 48 0 0 -2 Monday, December 20, 2010 20 T T -8 Wednesday, February 09, 2011 11 0 0 -17 2 Friday, April 01, 2011            
Wednesday, November 03, 2010 51 0.02 0 2 Tuesday, December 21, 2010 30 0.22 2.2 2 Thursday, February 10, 2011 11 0 0 -17 0% Saturday, April 02, 2011            
Thursday, November 04, 2010 56 0 0 7 Wednesday, December 22, 2010 33 0.11 1 6 Friday, February 11, 2011 10 0 0 -18   Sunday, April 03, 2011            
Friday, November 05, 2010 47 0.01 T -1 Thursday, December 23, 2010 33 T T 6 Saturday, February 12, 2011 24 T 0.2 -6 0 Monday, April 04, 2011            
Saturday, November 06, 2010 39 0 0 -9 Friday, December 24, 2010 28 0 0 1 Sunday, February 13, 2011 32 0.01 0.1 3   Tuesday, April 05, 2011            
Sunday, November 07, 2010 46 0 0 -1 Saturday, December 25, 2010 28 0.01 0.1 2 Monday, February 14, 2011 43 T 0 14   Wednesday, April 06, 2011            
Monday, November 08, 2010 55 0 0 9 Sunday, December 26, 2010 31 0 0 5 Tuesday, February 15, 2011 39 0 0 10   Thursday, April 07, 2011            
Tuesday, November 09, 2010 62 0 0 16 Monday, December 27, 2010 29 0 0 3 Wednesday, February 16, 2011 39 T 0 9   Friday, April 08, 2011            
Wednesday, November 10, 2010 61 0 0 16 Tuesday, December 28, 2010 22 T T -4 Thursday, February 17, 2011 43 0 0 13   Saturday, April 09, 2011            
Thursday, November 11, 2010 60 0 0 15 Wednesday, December 29, 2010 26 0 0   Friday, February 18, 2011 46 0 0 16   Sunday, April 10, 2011            
Friday, November 12, 2010 56 0.01 0 12 Thursday, December 30, 2010 36 0.02 0 11 Saturday, February 19, 2011 37 0 0 6 0 Monday, April 11, 2011            
Saturday, November 13, 2010 45 0.1 0 1 Friday, December 31, 2010 42 T 0 17 Sunday, February 20, 2011 28 0 0 -3 0% Tuesday, April 12, 2011            
Sunday, November 14, 2010 46 0.08 0 3 Saturday, January 01, 2011 45 0.03 0 21 Monday, February 21, 2011 32 0.96 7.9 1 7.9 Wednesday, April 13, 2011            
Monday, November 15, 2010 39 T T -4 Sunday, January 02, 2011 18 0 0 -6 Tuesday, February 22, 2011 22 0.21 1.4 -10   Thursday, April 14, 2011            
Feb 1, 2011 through Early March, 2011
Snowfall Forecast for OSNW3 Oshkosh | North using Lezak's Recurring Cycle (LRC) theory
Created by Josh Herman on Jan 27, 2011 - Forecast will not be modified.
** Time period of Jan 29-Feb 2 the Great Lake Cyclone returns along with system that precedes it. Around six inches could fall.
** Time period of Feb 9-12 a low that moves in from the west. Around two inches could fall.
** Time period of Feb 19-21 a low that moves in from the southwest. Too warm for snow?
** Time period of Feb 24-27 a clipper or two. Around an inch.
** Time period of Mar 3-11 a series of disturbances work through. Up to seven inches possible.
** Time period of Mar 13-15, a clipper could drop an inch.
?Will the fourth iteration of the GLC during the 3rd week of March usher in spring and then put us back in the deep freeze?
** Total predicted snowfall for forecast period is around 18 inches
 
Legend Previous  Forecasts Results
predicted snow fall Dec 17, 2010 through Jan 31, 2011 17.0
% accuracy Feb 1, 2011 through Early March, 2011 58%
   
actual snow fall 29.0
I will round the actual snowfall totals for the accuracy calculation as the predicted snowfall amounts are generalized.
"ALTDev" is the deviation from the daily maximum temperature average for Oshkosh 1971-2000
Click on Pcpn amounts that are linked for archived radar
*** = snow accumulated and wasn't forecast
Follow this link for the blog entry for more info.